Solar power is no longer sitting at the edges of Africa’s energy system. It is gradually moving from pilot projects into the centre of electricity planning and supply across several markets on the continent.
This transition is not being driven by policy ambition alone. It is being forced by conditions on the ground. Higher cost of petrol, poor grid network and occasional electricity shortages have made solar a more favorable choice than it was ever before.
In many situations, solar is not considered as a long-term solution anymore. It is becoming a practical necessity.
The change is not only in what solar does; it is in how much solar power is used. Solar technology is no longer confined to small-scale applications, projects funded by donors, or remote rural electrification schemes. Now, solar is expanding into commercial systems, mini-grids and even utility-scale projects.
However, the expansion is not taking place in a uniform manner across the continent. Each market is responding differently depending on its energy structure, policy climate and level of infrastructure development. Consequently, the coming phase of solar power deployment in Africa will not be spearheaded by a dominant player.
Instead, attention is now turning to a handful of economies that are distinctly unique, including Kenya, Nigeria, and Ethiopia. Each is moving at a different pace and for very different reasons.
Understanding Africa’s solar momentum
Solar energy capacity on the African continent has been rising consistently over the past decade owing to the combination of utility-scale installations and decentralization efforts.
In 2025, Africa installed approximately 4.5 GW of new solar PV capacity, representing a 54% year-on-year increase and marking a sharp acceleration in annual deployment across regions. The growth is real, but uneven in both speed and structure.
Meanwhile, the access gap cannot be overlooked.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), four out of every five African people do not have access to power. This level of unfulfilled demand has been continuously shaping the way solar technologies are being used on the continent.
In such a situation, the significance of off-grid solar systems is steadily growing. Off-grid electrification solutions represent the most efficient option for bringing light to approximately 41% of those who still lack access to electricity by 2030.
In Africa, this is reflected in the rapid development of mini-grids and stand-alone systems in the regions with an inefficient development of a traditional grid network.
Large-scale solar projects, however, continue to rely heavily on development finance institutions and multilateral programmes. Initiatives like the Scaling Solar program by the World Bank have helped in shaping projects while mitigating their risks in order to facilitate capacity creation in some markets.
The solar energy sector is fast becoming one of the cheapest means for generating new electricity supply in various emerging economies. This makes the technology even more significant in countries that depend heavily on diesel-based generation systems.
However, despite all the progress that has been made, investments still tend to be unevenly distributed. The markets with better regulatory structures and clearer policies keep attracting more investments from the private sector, whereas some other markets depend almost entirely on concessional finance.
As a whole, the solar boom in Africa continues to grow, although it is highly fragmented. Different countries are adopting their own strategies and policy direction for expanding capacity.
Kenya is scaling solar from a position of strength
Kenya’s solar expansion is taking place within one of Africa’s more established renewable energy systems. Unlike many markets where solar is filling a basic access gap, Kenya is building on an already relatively stable electricity mix.
There is already considerable reliance on geothermal energy and hydropower for power generation in the country. This takes the burden off solar energy to serve as the main alternative and helps establish it as one component of overall diversification efforts.
Solar energy growth in Kenya has been aided by policy stability and an actively involved private sector. Private independent power producers have had their hands in some utility projects while mini-grids have enabled electricity provision in distant places.
The regulatory environment has been a source of predictability, which other markets sometimes lack. As a result, Kenya has become one of the most appealing spots in East Africa for investments in renewable energy.
Nevertheless, such maturity has some limitations of its own. Grid absorption capacity remains a concern, particularly as renewable penetration increases. Tariff structures and pricing dynamics can further influence the pace of new investment.
Joseph Nganga, an energy finance specialist explains that Kenya’s challenge is no longer about introducing renewables, but managing their integration.
“Kenya has made significant progress in building a clean energy mix. The next phase is about how to integrate more variable renewable energy without putting pressure on the grid,” Nganga told Energy in Africa.
As a result, the solar industry in Kenya is not undergoing rapid expansion. Rather, it is slowly incorporating solar energy into an existing system.
Nigeria’s solar growth is being driven by necessity
Nigeria presents a sharply different picture. Unlike more stable renewable systems, solar here is not being layered onto a reliable grid. It is increasingly replacing one that struggles to meet basic demand.
Electricity shortages remain a defining feature of the country’s energy landscape. Businesses and households rely heavily on diesel generators, creating a parallel power system that is both expensive and inefficient. In many urban centres, self-generation has effectively become the default.
That structure is now beginning to shift. The increasing price of fuel has greatly enhanced the economic viability of solar power, particularly for business and industry. In several instances, solar power installations can provide a cheaper source of energy than diesel-powered plants.
This is where Nigeria’s position in the “solar boom” question becomes clearer. It is not because of policy incentives that demand is being generated, but rather through pressures within the energy system itself.
As a result, solar adoption and deployment is gaining momentum in commercial and industrial applications. Rooftop systems are also expanding in urban areas, while mini-grids continue to grow in remote communities with unreliable grid connectivity.
According to Damilare Olufemi, a Lagos-based energy analyst, this shift is now mainstream.
“What we are seeing is a change in behaviour. Solar is no longer treated as backup capacity. For many businesses across Nigeria, it is now becoming the main source of power. This is because it is the most predictable option available across the country,” he told Energy in Africa.
The momentum is evident, but the market remains uneven. Foreign exchange constraints continue to affect the importation of solar equipment, increasing costs and slowing deployment cycles.
Inconsistencies in policy formulation also contribute to uncertainties, especially for investors considering long-term infrastructural investments.
In addition, underdeveloped transmission networks limit the extent to which distributed generation can develop into a comprehensive national electricity supply system. In many cases, solar projects are forced to operate independently rather than feed into a stable grid network.
Despite these constraints, momentum is building. Unlike more structured markets, Nigeria’s growth is being driven less by coordinated planning and more by economic necessity. That dynamic tends to produce faster adoption, even if it comes with greater fragmentation.
Ethiopia’s solar expansion is structured and state-led
On its part, Ethiopia presents a third and distinctly different model of solar development. The country’s power sector has long been dominated by hydropower, supported by large-scale infrastructure aimed at meeting domestic demand and supporting regional power exports.
This system has delivered relatively low-cost electricity for years. However, it has also exposed a structural weakness. Heavy reliance on hydropower leaves the system vulnerable to climate variability, particularly changes in rainfall patterns that affect generation capacity.
As a result, diversification is becoming more important. Solar power is currently being incorporated as one strategy used to reduce dependence on a single source of power and improve long-term energy security.
While the development of solar power in Nigeria is driven by the cost factor, Ethiopia’s efforts are guided by the government. Projects are typically introduced through competitive tenders and supported by development finance institutions.
This results in a more structured rollout of capacity in line with national priorities. It also aligns with Ethiopia’s general approach toward developing its infrastructure sector, where the government coordinates the decision-making process for investments in energy resources.
However, this structure also limits the pace of expansion. Private sector participation remains relatively constrained, and currency restrictions continue to affect the importation of equipment and financing of projects.
Nganga notes that while state-led energy systems can provide direction, they often face execution challenges.
“Centralised energy planning can ensure long-term alignment with national goals, but it often moves at a slower pace, particularly where financing structures and currency risks create bottlenecks,” he explains.
This tension is evident in Ethiopia’s solar developments. Solar projects are progressing, but only through a carefully paced and staged approach. As a result, Ethiopia’s solar expansion is likely to remain steady and structured.
Three markets, three different solar pathways
Collectively, Kenya, Nigeria and Ethiopia demonstrate the diverse nature of the African solar scene. All three countries are building their solar capacity, but each one in entirely different circumstances.
Kenya is an example of a stable and policy-oriented approach where the incorporation of solar power takes place in an energy portfolio that was previously operating and functioning well.
Nigeria has a decentralized and demand-oriented approach whereby solar expansion is driven by the lack of electricity and dependency on diesel energy.
Ethiopia sits in between, but with a more centralised model. Here, the state is guiding the pace and structure of development, with projects largely shaped through planning frameworks and development finance support.
These differences go beyond structure. They influence financing of projects, speed of deployment of capacity, and delivery of electricity to the consumers.
Above all, they prove that the process of Africa’s energy transition is not linear or following a single path. Instead, it is being shaped by a combination of local energy realities, institutional strength and economic pressure.
So, where is the next solar boom?
The answer depends on how that boom is defined. It lies in what qualifies as a boom.
Should the priority be stability and predictability, Kenya continues to rank among the top destinations for investors for solar integration. Its regulatory environment and existing renewable energy infrastructure ensure its status as a dependable place for investing despite its slow pace of growth.
Alternatively, Ethiopia presents a distinct form of appeal. The methodical approach employed in Ethiopia provides a clear framework for expansion, supported by long-term planning and development finance, although progress remains measured.
If a solar boom is defined as fast growth in both scope and size, Nigeria is one country that fits the bill. The solar industry in Nigeria is growing rapidly because of persistent shortages in electricity supply and dependence on diesel-based electricity production.
Across all three solar markets, continued success will require policy stability and access to finance. The balance between centralised grids and decentralised systems will also play a role, with Nigeria leaning towards decentralised solutions, while Kenya and Ethiopia remain more structured.
But ultimately, the next great solar revolution in Africa won’t come from one nation. It will be defined by how these markets evolve under pressure and convert demand into scalable power systems.
