Nigeria’s refineries could emerge as the next big buyer of U.S. crude oil as trade tensions between China and Washington escalate, according to a new report by BRS Shipbrokers.
The shipping group says Nigeria is likely to boost its U.S. oil imports because the United States will need to find new markets for the crude currently destined for China.
“This would permit Nigeria to export more of its domestically produced barrels to China and import (potentially) cheaper U.S. barrels for Dangote,” BRS Shipbrokers said.
Preliminary ship-tracking data already points to a recent rise in Nigerian crude imports from the United States.
Africa’s largest refiner, Dangote Refinery, which has previously received shipments of U.S. crude, is expected to drive much of the projected increase.
The report indicates that the surge in import of US crude to the African nation is as a result of the ongoing trade war between the White House and China.
While China’s share of U.S. crude exports currently stands at just 6%, a figure BRS suggests could fall further amid ongoing tariff disputes.
Data from Kpler reveals that U.S. crude exports to China have been volatile since mid-2024.
Although shipments to Asia picked up recently — rising from 71,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February to 135,000 bpd in March 2025.
Most of these cargoes are likely headed to India, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan rather than China, the report shows.
Combined, these three countries imported 1.23 million bpd of U.S. crude in March 2025, according to Kpler.
BRS forecasts two major scenarios for Nigeria:
– First, Nigeria, Africa’s top oil producer, could step in to replace U.S. crude exports to China, likely using VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) instead of smaller Suezmax vessels.
VLCCs can transport up to 2 million barrels of oil — double the Suezmax capacity — reducing shipping time and costs on long-haul routes.
– Second, the Dangote Refinery, Nigeria’s largest domestic fuel supplier, stands to benefit by increasing its imports of U.S. crude.
The Dangote plant had requested 550,000 bpd of crude from Nigerian producers for the first half of 2025, but deliveries have lagged behind demand.
Notably, the refinery made its debut in the U.S. jet fuel export market in March 2025, taking its imports to new highs since February 2023.
Nigeria remains one of the United States’ leading trading partners in Africa, according to data from the country’s statistics agency.
In 2024, bilateral trade between the two countries exceeded $9.9 billion, with crude oil and gas accounting for $5.65 billion of U.S. imports from Nigeria.
BRS also projects that the VLCC market will remain strong, given robust demand from Asia, especially as China likely increases oil imports from Saudi Arabia.
