The return of US President Donald Trump has significantly reshaped the global oil market.
Currently, petroleum activities are in top gear for new highs that the world has not witnessed in recent time.
President Trump signed a series of presidential orders on day one, declaring a national energy emergency to expedite the expansion of oil and gas production in line with his “Drill, Baby, Drill” ambitions, which he proved to be more than elevator music.
That’s exactly what Trump promised the American people during his 2024 campaign. He was clear and firm on his stance — no surprise he received massive financial and political backing from Big Oil.
As the world’s largest producer of oil and natural gas, the revival in the US fossil fuel industry is having global implications.
It’s bringing renewed optimism to an industry many climate activists believed was on an irreversible decline.
At the same time, it’s prompting firms that once committed to green strategies to reassess their plans amid volatile market conditions.
For instance, Rohan Bowater, analyst at Accela Research, told Reuters that “Geopolitical disruptions like the invasion of Ukraine have weakened CEO incentives to prioritise the low-carbon transition amid high oil prices and evolving investor expectations”.
In his recent outing, President Donald Trump urged OPEC and Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, expressing concerns that high energy costs are worsening the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
This appeal resulted in an emergency meeting of OPEC’s key producers in Riyadh.
And by the end of January 2025, crude oil inventory in the U.S. was reported to have risen by 3.46 million barrels the previous week as refiner intake slumped for a third consecutive week.
If you follow the industry closely you will admit today that international oil companies (IOCs) are recalibrating their strategies to tap into this market revival.
Oil majors like ExxonMobil, Shell, Chevron, TotalEnergies, Equinor, and British Petroleum (BP) are now planning to increase their investments in oil production, something they hushed from doing during the last administration.
BP’s new reset policy
BP is the latest of these oil and gas companies to take a notable decision to prioritize its traditional hydrocarbon business.
The oil major has announced plans to scale back its investments in renewable energy and increase funding for oil and gas projects, in what the CEO Murray Auchincloss, calls a fundamentally reset strategy “with an unwavering focus on growing long-term shareholder value.”
In his words: “Today we have fundamentally reset bp’s strategy. We are reducing and reallocating capital expenditure to our highest-returning businesses to drive growth, and relentlessly pursuing performance improvements and cost efficiency.
“This is all in service of sustainably growing cash flow and returns.”
Under the reset plan, BP intends to cut annual spending on renewable initiatives by over $5 billion, reducing it to between $1.5 billion and $2 billion per year, while boosting oil and gas investments to $10 billion annually.
BP is the second-largest oil company in Europe. It plans to increase oil and gas production to between 2.3 and 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2030, surpassing the 2.36 million boepd it produced in 2024.
The company also aims to add about $2 billion to its operating cash flow by 2027.
By the end of 2027, BP plans to launch 10 major projects, with another 8–10 expected by 2030.
This decision stems from pressures from stakeholders like Elliott Management, asking the oil company to focus more on profitable ventures.
Elliott, a major stakeholder in BP, has called for a shift in strategy.
The firm urged BP to exit sectors where it lacks scale and expertise, like solar and wind energy.
Instead, it wants the company to focus on areas that align with its traditional business model.
The struggling oil company has underperformed compared to peers like Shell and ExxonMobil and investors want a good run for their money.
Big European energy companies that had invested heavily in the clean energy transition found their share performance lagging behind U.S. rivals Exxon, which had kept their focus on oil and gas.
Shell recently stepped back from new offshore wind investments, as well as Norway’s state-controlled Equinor, which has also slowed its spending on renewable energy projects.
BP had previously set an ambitious goal to grow its renewable power capacity 20-fold this decade, targeting 50 GW.
However, in December 2024, the company announced plans to spin off most of its offshore wind projects into a joint venture with Japanese power producer JERA.
On February 12, 2020, BP’s former CEO Bernard Looney announced the company’s goal to achieve “net zero” carbon emissions by 2050.
He pledged to cut oil and gas output by 40% while rapidly expanding renewable energy by 2030.
By 2023, however, BP lowered that target to 25%.
The oil giant, known for its role in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill that cost over $60 billion in damages, has also revised its climate commitments.
The company dropped its earlier target of a 20% to 30% absolute reduction in Scope 3 emissions between 2019 and 2030.
Scope 3 emissions include greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, released through a company’s supply chain and the use of its products by customers.
BP’s role in Africa’s oil and gas sector
However, these developments signal a significant pivot for the oil and gas industry.
Africa, a continent rich in oil and gas reserves, yet pushing for transition to renewable energy, will surely have a feel of its effects—positive or negative.
First off, the continent stands to benefit from increased attention and resources directed toward oil exploration, production, and infrastructure development.
BP has operated in Africa for over 100 years, with a wide range of interests and assets.
Its operations span the entire value chain, including exploration, extraction, refining, distribution, marketing, power generation, and trading and shipping (T&S).
The British multinational oil and gas company headquartered in London has assets and operates in over 10 African countries including Egypt, Mozambique, Angola, South Africa, Senegal, Mauritius, Mauritania, Côte d’Ivoire, Saotome and Principe, Algeria and even Madagascar.
In 2016, BP signed a long-term offtake contract for the purchase of LNG for over 20 years with the Coral sellers comprising Mozambique Rovuma Venture S.p.A. (a joint venture owned by Eni, ExxonMobil and CNPC), GALP, KOGAS and ENH (the Mozambican-state owned entity).
In January 2025, the oil and gas giant started producing gas from wells at the GTA Phase 1 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project.
The gas is being pumped to its floating production, storage, and offloading (FPSO) vessels operating in Senegal and Mauritius.
Once fully commissioned, GTA Phase 1 is expected to produce around 2.3 million tonnes of LNG per year. In 2021, it was declared “a project of strategic national importance” by both host governments.
Commenting on the start of production, Gordon Birrell, executive vice president (EVP) production & operations says;
“This is a fantastic landmark for this important mega project. First gas flow is a material example of supporting the global energy demands of today and reiterates our commitment to help Mauritania and Senegal develop their natural resources.”
BP describes the GTA project, located offshore Mauritania and Senegal, as one of Africa’s deepest offshore ventures, with gas deposits found at depths of 2,850 meters.
Once fully commissioned, GTA Phase 1 is expected to produce around 2.3 million tonnes of LNG per year.
In early February 2025, BP discovered oil and natural gas reserves at the “El King-2” well in the King Mariout offshore block in Egypt’s northern Mediterranean. This was part of its West Nile Delta (WND) 4-slot drilling campaign.
That same month, BP began production on phase two of the Raven field offshore Egypt.
The project involves the subsea tieback of additional Raven infill wells to its existing onshore infrastructure.
In late 2024, S&P Global reported that BP had ordered its first aviation shipment from the Dangote refinery in Nigeria.
The shipment, carried by the vessel Doric Breeze, marked the firm’s inaugural purchase of approximately 45,000 metric tons of jet fuel from the gigantic fuel processing facility.
Under its long-term contract, BP will purchase 100% of LNG output from Coral Sul FLNG which has the capacity to produce up to 3.4 million tonnes of LNG per year.
Potential impacts on Africa’s renewable drive
Meanwhile, BP’s plan to spend $10 billion annually to boost oil production could benefit African oil-producing countries by increasing revenue.
However, its reduced focus on renewables may slow efforts to expand green energy projects across the region.
This shift could stall ambitions to diversify energy sources and lower carbon footprints.
This means fewer new dedicated renewable projects from BP in Africa, with existing ones likely to face financing issues.
One project that might be affected is the large-scale green hydrogen project in Egypt jointly developed by BP and other partners like Masdar, Hassan Allam Utilities, and Infinity Power.
The project was to be led and operated by BP under a Joint Development Agreement (JDA), focusing on exporting green hydrogen and its derivatives.
It could also stall BP’s plans to undertake a biofuel project in Ghana to transform cooking oil into a renewable energy source. This forward-thinking project may likely face finding issues.
Another one could be the $500 million sustainable power initiative unveiled in December 2024 by BP, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Equinor with the aim of delivering energy access to under-served demographics across Africa and Asia.
Africa’s push for renewable energy faces another setback with the recent suspension of funding for Power Africa.
The program, launched by former President Barack Obama under USAID, aimed to add over 30,000 megawatts (MW) of clean and efficient electricity across the continent.
This comes at a time when hundreds of millions of people in Africa still lack access to reliable electricity.
While BP’s renewed focus means more funding for oil and gas production in Africa, it also suggests a possible shift away from clean and renewable energy projects on the continent.
