Electricity generation in Africa has long followed a simple divide. Power comes either from coal, crude oil or from natural gas.
Coal and crude are widely seen as the dirtier option, heavy on carbon and increasingly out of step with climate goals. Gas, on the other hand, has been treated more kindly. It is still a fossil fuel, but one with a lighter footprint and fewer emissions than its older cousins.
Africa has plenty of it. The continent holds some of the world’s largest untapped natural gas reserves, accounting for about 7% of proven global resources. Much of this gas lies beneath Nigeria, Algeria, Egypt and Mozambique, countries that have come to see it as both an economic asset and an energy solution.
It is abundant and flexible, a fuel that can keep the lights on while emitting far less carbon than coal or oil. In the long journey from fossil fuels to renewables, gas was meant to be the sensible stopover.
Yet it is renewable energy, not gas, that are adding power capacity faster across much of the continent.
The recent State of African Energy 2026 Outlook by the tink tank, Africa Energy Chamber, shows that while natural gas remains central to Africa’s long term energy plans, short term electricity generation is being shaped by solar installation and wind farms.
This shift is playing out against a deep electricity access crisis. The World Bank estimates that more than 600 million Africans still lack access to electricity. Millions more live with power that is unreliable or intermittent.
Despite Africa’s vast energy resources, power shortages remain widespread.
In several gas producing countries, power generation has been held back by slow upstream development, limited pipeline networks, and rising project costs.
“Using gas for power generation in Africa faces several challenges, primarily related to infrastructure and supply chain issues as many countries lack the necessary infrastructure for efficient gas transportation and distribution,” the report says.
At the same time, renewables have accounted for a growing share of new power additions across the continent in recent times.
The outlook shows that coal, oil and natural gas still dominate Africa’s electricity generation mix. However, their combined share has been declining steadily in recent years.
The rise of renewable energy in Africa
For now, solar and wind play a modest role, accounting for about 9% of Africa’s electricity generation. The share is still small, but it is expected to rise quickly as costs fall and procurement gathers pace.
By 2050, they could supply 41% of Africa’s electricity, according to the report. Total renewables, including hydropower, geothermal and biomass, could rise to 53%.
This growth is driven not only by climate goals, but by how quickly and easily renewable projects can be developed across African power markets.
Recent procurement activity shows this clearly. By July 2024, African countries had auctioned about 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, mainly from solar and wind projects.
These additions have been made possible through competitive tenders, feed-in tariffs and long-term power purchase agreements have become the main tools used by governments and utilities to add new renewable capacity to the grid.
“The scale of renewable procurement reflects a stronger policy focus on energy security and affordability,” the outlook notes, pointing to shorter development timelines and improving cost competitiveness as key drivers of investor interest.
South Africa, Morocco and Egypt lead Africa’s renewable energy growth, with South Africa’s procurement programme building a strong pipeline of large solar and wind projects since 2011.
In addition, Morocco has developed major solar and wind projects through public–private partnerships backed by multilateral lenders, while Egypt has expanded utility-scale solar through government tenders and private investment.
Renewable energy edge over natural gas
Meanwhile, costs have increasingly favoured renewables. The report indicates that the levelised cost of electricity for renewable technologies in Africa has fallen sharply over the past decade.
In 2025, utility scale solar projects recorded LCOE ranges of between $32 and $67 per megawatt hour in Africa. This compares with a solar LCOE of around $73 per megawatt hour in the United Kingdom.
The comparison represents the strength of African solar markets, where resource quality is high and land costs are lower.
These reductions reflect advances in solar technology, improved supply chains and growing deployment across the continent, particularly in markets such as South Africa and Kenya.
As project volumes increase, developers have benefited from economies of scale and more efficient financing structures.
“Both PV and wind have more affordable LCOE prices compared with gas generation and coal in South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria,” the report adds.
Wind energy has followed a similar path. Current LCOE estimates for onshore wind projects in Africa range between $37 and $71 per megawatt-hour, supported by strong wind resources in regions such as South Africa’s Cape Provinces and parts of Kenya.
According to the Outlook, as turbine technology improves and regional supply chains deepen, wind LCOE could fall further to between $33 and $59 per megawatt-hour by 2030.
Private offtake accelerates deployment
Another sign of renewable momentum is the growth of private offtake. Around 11 gigawatts of renewable capacity have been secured through privately negotiated power purchase agreements across Africa.
These agreements are mainly driven by commercial and industrial consumers seeking energy security, cost predictability, and alignment with environmental, social, and governance targets.
Compared with government-led tenders, private PPAs typically involve shorter development timelines and lower exposure to regulatory delays.
South Africa, Morocco and Egypt account for most privately negotiated renewable PPAs on the continent. These countries benefit from simpler regulations, established grid infrastructure, and allowing projects to be developed and financed more quickly.
Public procurement, by contrast, has faced delays in several countries due to tariff negotiations, financing constraints, and policy uncertainty.
Similar challenges have also affected some gas-to-power projects, reinforcing the relative advantage of renewables that can secure private offtake more easily.
Balancing Africa’s energy transition
Hydropower remains Africa’s largest renewable energy source, but recent droughts in countries such as Zambia and Ghana have highlighted its vulnerability to variable water levels and the risks of relying too heavily on a single source.
To diversify generation and reduce supply risks, solar and wind are increasingly being added alongside hydro. Meanwhile, geothermal power continues to expand in East Africa, particularly in Kenya, and biomass remains relevant in select markets.
Even so, solar and wind dominate new capacity additions because of their modular design, falling costs, and shorter construction timelines. These attributes allow projects to move from financing to commissioning faster than large thermal plants.
Gas is unlikely to disappear from Africa’s electricity mix in 2026.
Several countries continue to prioritise domestic gas for power generation, and new projects remain under development.
The data suggests, however, that renewable projects currently face fewer cost, fuel supply and deployment challenges than gas fired plants.
As the State of African Energy 2026 Outlook notes, the pace of renewable deployment is being shaped less by long-term climate targets and more by immediate concerns. Cost, speed and bankability now play a central role.
In 2026, these factors are expected to play a decisive role in determining where Africa’s next megawatts come from, with renewables increasingly positioned to outpace gas in new electricity generation additions.
