Nigeria recorded an impressive trade surplus of N15.1 trillion in the first nine months of 2024, supported by increased crude oil exports which grew by 122.1% over the period.
This is contained in the 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook released by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG).
The report revealed that Nigeria’s export earnings rose sharply, fueled by elevated global crude oil prices and higher production levels. This contributed significantly to the country’s overall trade balance, which saw one of its largest annual increases in nearly a decade.
“Nigeria’s external sector in 2024 experienced a notable improvement, mainly due to higher oil export earnings and a more flexible exchange rate regime,” NESG says.
According to the report, oil production in Nigeria increased from 1.47 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.55 million barrels per day in 2024, for the first time in four years.
This boosted Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, with oil contributing over 80% of export revenue.
Moreover, the NESG report also said that Bonny Light prices averaged $82.6 per barrel in 2024, compared to $85.0 in 2023.
Nigeria’s external sector has been experiencing notable improvements of late, mainly due to higher oil export earnings and a more flexible exchange rate regime.
This improvement has supported a high accretion in the country’s external reserves which strengthened the government’s fiscal buffers and triggered improved investors’ confidence.
GDP growth in 2025
The report projects Nigeria’s real GDP growth to surge to 5.5% in 2025, however with the implementation of effective stabilisation measures. Inflation is also projected to decline to 24.7% from the current 34.8%, signalling an improvement in the country’s macroeconomic stability.
In 2025, the global oil market is in for a potential oversupply due to the US president’s vowing to boost petroleum production in the world’s largest oil producer. Trump’s second presidency is expected to reshape global energy supply dynamics, and alter corporate strategies.
But these actions aside from bringing uncertainties about the long-term impact on environmental policies and international climate efforts, could lead to potential oversupply in the oil impact Nigeria’s economy because of its dependence on the oil and sector for foreign exchange earnings.
The report suggests the need to diversify export earnings by boosting non-oil exports. This calls for investment in value-added production, export incentives, and improved logistics could help reduce dependence on oil and prevent potential external vulnerabilities.
The government and policymakers need to prioritize infrastructure, energy, and human capital investments to sustain and amplify the gains recorded in 2024.
