Nigeria’s premium motor spirit, also known as petrol, imports have dropped to an eight-year low as the Dangote Refinery ramps up production, reducing the country’s reliance on foreign fuel.
Data from Vortexa Ltd. compiled by Bloomberg shows that gasoline shipments into Nigeria stood at approximately 110,000 barrels per day from January 1-24.
If this trend continues, imports primarily from Europe will reach their lowest level since 2017, the data sows.
Samantha Hartke, an analyst at Vortexa, said the sharp decline in Nigeria’s petrol imports is largely due to increased output from the Dangote refinery. “Northwest Europe will have to find alternative homes for its gasoline supplies,” she noted.
The $20 billion Dangote refinery, with a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, is the largest in Africa and Europe.
Analysts say its growing production could significantly reduce West Africa’s reliance on imported fuel. Kelly Norways of S&P Global Commodity Insights stated in a market podcast that when the refinery reaches full capacity, Nigeria’s gasoline imports could drop by as much as 290,000 barrels per day between 2023 and 2026.
Beyond importation of petrol, the refinery’s diesel production is also reshaping global trade.
European refiners, long dominant in West Africa, are losing market share. A trader familiar with the European market, Farai Ronoledi, mentioned that some refineries may shut down as a result. “This is not just a domestic win for Nigeria; it’s a shift in the global refining landscape,” he added.
Stockpiles of gasoline in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub a key export region for Nigeria have reached record highs, further signaling the impact of Dangote’s operations.
With European refiners already facing environmental regulations and financing challenges, experts suggest the loss of the West African market could accelerate refinery closures.
