International crude oil prices surged to eight month high as markets opened on Monday, following the latest escalation between the United States, Israel and Iran.
Brent crude rose by almost 7% to $77.57 per barrel in early trading, after briefly topping $82.00. The rally followed coordinated military strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran, and Tehran’s retaliatory missile attacks across the region.
For US crude, West Texas Intermediate climbed 6.2% to $71.77 per barrel in early deals. US President Donald Trump said the military action could last up to four weeks.
The attacks have also affected energy infrastructure across the Gulf. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura Refinery was reportedly shut down following the strikes.
Some analysts say crude prices could climb toward $100 per barrel if the conflict persists.
Strait of Hormuz disruption fears drive price spike
The most significant risk to oil markets remains the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage linking the Persian Gulf to global shipping lanes.
About 15 million barrels of crude oil per day, roughly 20% of global supply, pass through the strait, according to Rystad Energy. The waterway is bordered by Iran to the north and serves as the main export route for Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Iran.
Iran temporarily restricted movement in parts of the strait in mid February during what it described as a military drill. Further disruptions could tighten supply and push prices higher.
Recent attacks, including incidents involving vessels transiting the strait, have raised concerns that oil exports from the region could be curtailed. Energy experts warn that any prolonged restriction would likely lift crude and gasoline prices globally.
OPEC+ raises output amid tension
Against this backdrop, eight members of OPEC+ announced plans on Sunday to increase crude production. The group said it would raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April, a larger adjustment than many analysts had expected.
Countries boosting output include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
“Roughly one fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for world trade, meaning markets are more concerned with whether barrels can move than with spare capacity on paper,” said Jorge León, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.
“If flows through the Gulf are constrained, additional production will provide limited immediate relief, making access to export routes far more important than headline output targets.”
Iran exports about 1.6 million barrels of oil per day, mostly to China. Any disruption to those flows could force buyers to seek alternative supplies, adding further pressure to global energy markets.
