South African motorists are bracing for another fuel price hike in February, marking the fourth consecutive monthly increase.
This development is driven by a surge in international oil prices and the continued depreciation of the rand against the US dollar.
The Central Energy Fund’s (CEF) latest unaudited data, released on January 13, indicates substantial increases at fuel pumps effective February 5. Petrol prices are projected to rise by 75 cents per liter for 95 unleaded and 81 cents for 93 unleaded.
Diesel prices are expected to climb by 90 cents per liter for high-sulfur 0.05% diesel and 88 cents for low-sulfur 0.005% diesel. Illuminating paraffin is also set to increase by 73 cents per liter.
If current trends persist, experts warn that these figures could rise even higher.
“The continued pressure from a weakening rand and surging Brent Crude oil prices could push fuel increases beyond R1 per liter,” an industry analyst noted.
Impact of global oil market dynamics
The global oil market has been volatile, with Brent Crude oil prices climbing nearly 10% since the start of 2025. On January 13, Brent Crude surpassed the $80 (R1,520) mark for the first time in four months, significantly above December’s average of $72.78. Analysts attribute this spike to geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions, notably the recent U.S. sanctions on Russian crude oil, which could remove up to 800,000 barrels per day from the global market.
Local fuel prices are directly impacted by these global shifts. The combination of rising oil prices and a weaker rand has widened South Africa’s fuel price under-recovery, making substantial increases unavoidable.
Fuel prices in South Africa are adjusted on the first Wednesday of every month, with the next adjustment scheduled for February 5. Following modest increases of between 8 and 12 cents per liter on January 1, the current prices are:
Inland:
• Petrol 95 unleaded: R21.59
• Petrol 93 unleaded: R21.34
• Diesel 0.05%: R19.29
• Diesel 0.005%: R19.44
Coast:
• Petrol 95 unleaded: R20.80
• Petrol 93 unleaded: R20.55
• Diesel 0.05%: R18.50
• Diesel 0.005%: R18.68
A further increase could erode much of the relief motorists experienced in late 2024 when coastal petrol prices dropped to R20.26 in October, following a peak of R24.70 in May.
Economic concerns for consumers
The anticipated fuel hikes raise concerns about the broader economic impact. Higher fuel costs typically lead to increased transportation and food prices, placing additional pressure on households already grappling with rising living expenses.
Industry experts warn that unless the rand strengthens and global oil prices stabilize, South Africans should prepare for prolonged high fuel costs.
