Nigeria has attracted over $8 billion in deepwater and gas investments in less than a year, thanks to bold fiscal reforms and strategic leadership, according to Olu Verheijen, Special Adviser on Energy to President Bola Tinubu.
Speaking at the 2025 Africa CEO Forum in Abidjan, Verheijen issued a reality check for African policymakers and investors, warning that global capital is neither loyal nor sentimental.
“Let’s be clear: capital has no passport. Sentimental appeals to ‘African capital’ are a distraction,” she said. “Capital is opportunistic, not patriotic. It flows where risk-adjusted returns are competitive.”
Citing global competition for upstream oil and gas funding, Verheijen pointed out that while Africa secured $340 billion between 2011 and 2015, projections suggest that number could fall below $130 billion between 2026 and 2030.
She called this decline “not a funding winter—but a structural decimation.”
Amid this stark outlook, Nigeria—with 37 billion barrels of oil and 210 TCF of gas in proven reserves—has emerged as a bright spot.
According to Verheijen, decisive actions by the presidency—including improved fiscal terms, contracting reforms, clearer local content policies, and gas-to-power incentives—unlocked over $8 billion in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for deepwater and gas projects within a year.
Following the recent onshore divestment, many oil majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, and others, have flooded Nigeria’s deep waters with multi-billion dollar announcements.
The country attracted between $16-17 billion in foreign direct investment inflows in 2024, with most of that going into deepwater development.
She said Nigeria “moved from gridlock to greenlight, and investors responded.”
Verheijen also urged African Development Finance Institutions (DFIs), banks, and sovereign wealth funds to become proactive partners in reshaping the continent’s energy landscape.
“Our sweet spot is onshore, shelf, and domestic gas. That’s where African players must dominate, because we understand the terrain, the risk, and the reward,” she said.
In addition, Olu lauded Nigerian firms like Seplat, Oando, and Renaissance Group, describing them as private-sector champions that are leading a historic shift from colonial-era concessions to indigenous ownership.
Renaissance’s acquisition of Shell’s onshore joint venture and Seplat’s new 390 million cubic feet per day gas supply deal with NNPC were highlighted as key milestones.
Moreover, Rystad Energy projects that Nigeria will lead natural gas production growth through 2030, with several major projects already in the pipeline.
While indigenous producers are gaining ground, international oil companies (IOCs) continue to account for over 50% of sub-Saharan Africa’s production and capital spend. Their investment priorities, however, are evolving.
“They’re no longer chasing barrels. They’re chasing value: low-cost, low-carbon, de-risked assets,” she added.
