The mega Dangote refinery continues to expand its market share in Nigeria, supplying the bulk of domestic petrol for three consecutive months from January to March this year, according to a new report.
Data from the monthly fact sheet of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) show that since the start of the year, the share of locally refined petrol has steadily increased, while imports have declined significantly.
The refinery now accounts for an average of about 85% of total petrol consumption in Africa’s most populous country, the data indicate.
According to the NMDPRA fact sheet, Dangote supplied about 40.1 million litres of petrol daily in January 2026, out of a total consumption of about 64.9 million litres per day. Since then, its market share has continued to grow, while imports have weakened further.
In March, the refinery supplied about 34 million litres of the country’s daily petrol consumption, while importers contributed a meagre 5.9 million litres over the same period.
Accordingly, the regulator stated that it has stopped issuing new import licences, as the refinery now virtually meets domestic petrol demand.
Although the recent Middle East crisis has made it more difficult for Dangote to secure additional Nigerian crude for refining, regulators have issued six licences to import fuel into the country. However, for the most part, the Dangote Refinery now dominates petrol supply in the downstream sector, the report shows.
A reversal from previous trends
The recent trends in NMDPRA data reflect a reversal of earlier patterns, where importers largely dominated the downstream market, while local refining contributed only a small share of the country’s petrol supply.
The CEO of the refinery, Aliko Dangote, had previously raised concerns over attempts by importers to undermine his business, alleging a conspiracy between importers and regulators.
Dangote also accused the former head of the regulator, Farouk Ahmed, of abuse of office and corruption. Ahmed later stepped down as chairman of the agency.
In a subsequent statement, Dangote said the new regulators have shown less partiality and a stronger commitment to the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA 2021), which prioritises local refining.
Imports shrink in the downstream sector
The rising supply from the Dangote Refinery reflects a sharp decline in petrol imports into the country.
This development also comes at a time when the global energy crisis linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East has made it more difficult for importers to source fuel from the international market.
The conflict has also made imported petroleum products relatively more expensive compared to locally refined supply.
According to some reports, many marketers are now sourcing products from the Dangote Refinery, moving away from their previous import-dependent operations.
